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CES2013:多屏背后是什么 Tags: CES,PC,只能终端.

PC的没落引发一个关于智能终端的乱世,多屏时代只是这个乱世的开端,随着多样化的智能终端争相统治我们的手、眼、脚、耳、腕,终结乱世的王者将会是这一场人体争夺战的胜出者。

汉室衰微而天下分,PC没落则多屏起。

自从PC在21世纪第一个10年开始走向没落,多屏的兴起就成为一股不可逆转的潮流,在2013年的CES(Consumer Electronics Show)消费电子展会上,这一趋势则被演绎到了极致。

5英寸及以上更大屏幕的安卓智能手机纷纷亮相;超过20英寸的家用平板电脑进入人们视野;LG推出基于Google TV定制的智能电视;可做到2小时充电7天待机的Pebble智能手表横空出世;在谷歌眼镜之外,价格低至500美元的消费级智能眼镜Vuzix M100亮相CES;现代集团、QNX等推出的车载应用解决方案则将汽车屏变成另一个智能终端……

从智能手机、平板电脑、智能电视、智能汽车、智能手表到智能眼镜,作为名词,这些都并不新鲜,但如果仔细观察,2013年的CES展会有两个趋势值得注意。

其一是多屏的打通和融合,从智能手表到智能汽车屏,虽然屏幕的大小千差万别,但是屏幕后的内容正在逐渐融合打通,例如一款新闻应用可能同时出现在智能手表、智能眼镜、智能电视甚至智能汽车的屏幕上,联系这些多屏的,是云和应用。

其二,尽管大屏(指平板,电视,汽车屏)的创新依然不乏看点,然而小屏化的趋势则更带给人新鲜的思考:智能手表和智能眼镜的惊艳亮相让人们看到了屏幕玩法的另一种可能——所谓智能终端不必一味追求更大的屏幕和更强的计算能力,在计算能力可通过云来连接的今天,眼镜、手表这些弱计算能力的小屏也可以作为智能设备的延展而释放价值。

当提到智能手表的时候,人们再也不用皱一下眉头担心处理器够不够,存储空间大不大,未来的手表更多是作为一种显示设备的外设。例如,它的计算能力可存在于手机,通过硬件之间的相互通信,手表屏幕更多承担的是一种接受重要信息推送的显示功能。

2013年CES开幕式的主题是《生而移动》,各类移动智能终端的爆发背后是计算能力从单平台到多平台的迁移。PC时代,个人电脑被称做计算机,很大程度上因为它是那时唯一的个人计算中心。云计算的发展和软件应用的成熟让智能终端的多样化成为可能,一个强计算能力的智能设备连接数个围绕人体的显示智能终端,这将让人的体外进化进入到一个快速发展的阶段。

最近半年来,科技界谈论的一个热门话题就是硬件的回潮。似乎在经历了10余年软件大发展之后,硬件的创新正在越来越频繁的发生,事实上,这恰恰是人的体外进化发展的一个必经阶段。

自从20世纪末期,IBM、思科这些硬件设备商靠着为互联网搭建基础设施大赚一笔之后,软件的创新就成为互联网时代的主流。然而哪怕拥有再强的功能,再美的UI,软件归根到底解决的还是理性色彩更重的计算能力,天生感性的消费者愿意为软件付费的冲动依然远远低于为硬件买单。

人类生来具有恋物的本性,对于可触摸可掌控的实实在在的物件人类总能保持着亘古不变的热情,这也是为什么不管多么热爱设计,多么精于软件开发,乔布斯只有在把iPhone的工业设计做到极致之后附着于iPhone上的优秀软件才能迎来商业价值的爆发。

从这个视角再去审视正在发生的硬件回潮,就会发现,所谓的硬件回潮背后是一场针对人体各个部位的又一轮基础设施争夺战,科技的创新总是这样:硬件的创新为软件发展带来繁荣的机会,而在软件创新面临瓶颈的时候,新一轮基于硬件的跑马圈地则自然会发生。

云的无处不在,让人类在未来将如同章鱼一般拥有众多的智能触角,从眼镜、手表、腕带、鞋子到耳机都将逐渐智能化,一场围绕着人体的终端争夺战也即将打响。

“秦失其鹿,天下共逐之。”PC的没落引发一个关于智能终端的乱世,多屏时代只是这个乱世的开端,随着多样化的智能终端争相统治我们的手、眼、脚、耳、腕,最终终结乱世的王者一定是这一场人体争夺战的胜出者。


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